Big Tech Roundtable 2026 | Part 4: Forecasting Future Compaction Technologies

The future doesn't sound so much like fantastical ideas of fleets of earth moving robots prepping jobsites for compaction robots to lay the foundation for paving robots. However, the role of humans on jobsites has already evolved, and will continue to do so.

Also, use these links below to jump to other parts of this round table discuss to find what you're most interested in learning about:

• PART 1: What Makes Intelligent Compaction Intelligent?
• PART 2: What Problems Does Intelligent Compaction Fix?
• PART 3: Data, Integration, And Interoperability. 

Future Forecasting: Where Does This Go Next?

Asphalt Contractor: Where is intelligent compaction technology genuinely underdeveloped right now? What problem in the compaction space has not yet been solved, and what would it take to solve it?

Tim Kowalski, HAMM: The main barrier is cost relative to the price of the roller. Without agency specifications requiring IC, many contractors struggle to justify the investment. However, technologically forward-thinking contractors are already leveraging IC to gain a competitive edge and maximize ROI.

Justin Zupanc, Volvo CE: One area that will continue to evolve is how the industry fully utilizes the data that’s generated. The technology can deliver consistent, high-quality results, but there’s still an opportunity to better connect that data into project specifications, acceptance processes and contractor workflows. Improving alignment between contractors, governing agencies and technology/machine producers — and more education on effective use of the tools — will be key to unlocking the full value of intelligent compaction systems.

Kevin Garcia, Trimble: The biggest unsolved problem isn’t on the technology side — it’s on the adoption and acceptance side. The sensor technology works, the data flows, and the connected environment is real. What hasn’t kept pace is the infrastructure around it. Legacy QA/QC methods and specifications take time to change, and we understand that. We don’t expect agencies to immediately accept a new measurement approach just because we say it’s better. Our job is to prove it, to work with progressive DOTs and demonstrate that the solution meets their needs and adds layers of insight traditional methods can’t provide. Most agencies still require a nuclear gauge and an inspector on site, and until IC data is broadly accepted as equivalent documentation for public projects, contractors face the friction of running both processes in parallel.

On the pure technology side, the gap that matters most is data at scale. We’re generating more compaction data per project than we’ve ever been able to process intelligently. The ability to analyze compaction data across an entire road network — and use it to predict where maintenance is needed before failures occur — is still an unsolved problem. The sensors can collect it; the algorithms to make full use of it at that scale are still catching up.

The bigger shift we’d like to see is in how people think about IC. Stop treating it as a point solution for the roller operator and start treating it as input to wider jobsite and asset decisions. Project schedules, predictive maintenance models, asset lifecycle cost estimates, if IC data is connected into the broader asset management system, it becomes part of how owners understand the true cost and performance of their infrastructure. That’s where the full value lives, and as an industry we’re not fully there yet.

John Gravatt, BOMAG: The biggest problem in intelligent compaction to date has been the adoption rate, primarily due to system complexity and cost.  But luckily, consumer technology advancements have been helping push costs down in this area, and the market seems to be gaining interest in intelligent compaction tools, both passive and active systems.

AC: Autonomy is advancing rapidly across construction equipment. In five to ten years, what role do you see human operators playing in the compaction process and what role does your current IC technology play in building the foundation for that future?

Volvo: Autonomy is definitely a part of the future. In fact, back in 2021, we showed our futuristic single-drum, autonomous compactor concept, the CX01; and the feedback from contractors was highly encouraging. They were interested primarily because of the labor shortage issues we talked about earlier.

In the next five to 10 years, though, I think we’ll see autonomy take root in applications that are highly repetitive, like soil compaction, where a machine is running forward and backward in predictable patterns. The technology to geofence an area and run parallel paths is already largely here.

But human operators aren’t going away anytime soon, especially on complex asphalt jobs. Right now, current IC technology is the essential foundation for that future. It’s getting contractors and operators comfortable with digital information and proving that screen-based mapping is reliable. Once the industry fully trusts the sensors and the data, the transition to automated steering and propulsion becomes the natural next step.

Eric Booth, Dynapac: For now, you are still going to need someone to set parameters and settings for autonomous equipment. We see a future where our automatically adjusting compaction technology marries up with an autonomous roller. Basically, put the roller on the asphalt, tell it the compaction parameters you want it to reach … and watch it go.

Trimble: The market perspective is likely more useful than the standard autonomy answer. We held a customer advisory board meeting with some of our most strategic accounts recently, contractors who are actively shaping where we take product development.

The message was direct: even if Trimble released a fully autonomous roller tomorrow, they wouldn't buy it. Autonomy isn't the problem they're trying to solve. What they want is tools that make their operators better and data flowing across the site. The operator isn't going away. The operator is becoming more informed, more connected, and more capable of acting on better information.

We believe agentic AI plays a significant role in this advancement. Where traditional AI assists a single machine or operator, agentic AI observes conditions across multiple systems simultaneously and coordinates actions with minimal human oversight. We’re not there yet, but the foundation is going in: the ISO standard exists, the sensors are proven, and interoperability is becoming real. Our current IC systems are part of that groundwork — they get the data flowing reliably so agentic AI can eventually coordinate multiple machines instead of each one working in isolation.

BOMAG: Autonomy in soil compaction applications will likely precede asphalt jobsites, simply due to the ability to isolate them and reduce complexity / increase safety.  I would expect to see a growing use of Autonomy on the soil jobsites, which will likely trigger new sensor development to continually improve the efficacy of those systems.

HAMM: Full autonomy in asphalt compaction is still a long way off. Jobsite complexity—other equipment, people, traffic, and ever-changing conditions—makes autonomy challenging. For now, we are focused on increasing automation within the roller to support operators, reduce workload, and move gradually toward greater autonomy.

AC: Intelligent compaction has historically been deployed most heavily on highway and DOT work. What does expansion into smaller commercial, municipal, or private paving markets look like or are there other barriers there still to overcome?

Dynapac: Currently, IC systems have a pretty hefty price tag attached to them, which may bar smaller commercial paving crews away. Using technology like Seismic Asphalt is a good way to get intelligence on the roller at a much lower cost.

Trimble: There's a misconception that comes up constantly: contractors hear "intelligent compaction" and assume it's for airport runways and high-stakes DOT work.

But every paving contractor needs a properly compacted surface. That doesn't change based on project type or size. Parking lots, pickleball courts, running tracks — all require very precise management. Tight specifications exist in a lot more places than people assume, and technology helps meet them.

For smaller contractors, the argument is actually stronger than many realize because their margins are tight and their reputation is everything. A small contractor who has built their business on the quality of their work can't afford a premature failure on a commercial parking lot. In smaller markets, word travels fast. You're not likely to be hired again, and you don't have the resources to absorb that kind of hit. Quality isn't size-based. If you're a reputable contractor, you want to demonstrate that on every project, and technology helps you do it consistently.

The entry point doesn't have to be the full solution either. It might start with digital survey tools or grade control on compact machines used in subbase prep. Get the grade right early, and the paving and compaction that follow become simpler and more consistent. One step at a time, and each step pays for the next.

BOMAG: There has been a surprising amount of interest in the free BOMAP app from smaller paving customers who are looking to improve their quality control systems.  With the removal of the high cost as a barrier to entry, suddenly these customers are also interested in the technology. 

HAMM: IC performs best when used consistently across all projects, not just DOT jobs. Broader adoption increases familiarity and returns on investment. For smaller contractors, cost and operator turnover remain challenging as ongoing training demands can be difficult to manage.

Volvo: The main barriers for smaller commercial or municipal contractors have historically been the perceived complexity of the systems and the cost. To overcome those, we try to focus on simplicity and ensuring that an operator can jump in and get up to speed quickly. We maintain a uniform fit, finish and interface across a lot of our products. Whether you’re doing dirt work or running an asphalt roller, operation is going to feel familiar and consistent.

We’re seeing these technologies used successfully on residential streets and commercial jobs because the margins for error are just as tight there as they are on the highway. If a commercial contractor is doing a large parking lot, preventing rework by using real-time density readings gives them a massive competitive edge. By offering different tiers of Compact Assist, we make it more accessible for those smaller or private contractors to adopt the technology at a level that makes sense for them.

AC: If you could change one thing about how the industry currently understands or uses intelligent compaction, what would it be?

Trimble: Standardization of what IC actually means. Right now you can find dozens of different definitions across states, districts, and countries, each with its own requirements for what data needs to be collected, what accuracy is required, and what constitutes a compliant IC system. That inconsistency makes life harder for contractors trying to work across markets, harder for DOTs trying to write specifications, and harder for technology providers trying to build to a standard that meets everyone's needs from the contractor rolling the mat to the agency accepting the job.

BOMAG: Regarding pass count systems, GPS accuracy has been an issue.  (Arguably, this also drives part of the high system costs.)  The original specifications adopted by several states required RTK GPS systems.  While base stations may be common on large dirt works projects, this is often just not feasible on an asphalt jobsite where the crew may move several miles in a day (problematic with a base station) or not have access to mobile data connection for connection to CORS or NTRIP.  There is a lot of value in data even at a 12-inch accuracy.  As an industry, it may be wise to consider relaxing the position accuracy tolerance in order to improve adoption of this technology.

HAMM: I would encourage contractors and road owners to better understand the full value IC provides. The goal is lower costs for contractors and higher-quality roads for taxpayers. Today’s systems—such as Smart Compact Basic and Smart Compact Pro—are already capable of adjusting roller behavior automatically based on sensor feedback.

AC: What is the next meaningful data input or sensor technology that you believe will be integrated into compaction systems within the next five years? What new capabilities may it unlock?

BOMAG: If we mention that here, BOMAG won’t be able to revolutionize the industry, now will we?

HAMM: Future development will focus on sending information from the cloud to the machine, such as project data, calibration settings, and density results. This will simplify setup, reduce errors, and help less experienced operators perform at a high level.

Trimble: Steering—specifically, steering integrated with compaction sensor input. In the asphalt space, I think we’ll see smart rollers: machines with a defined roller pattern that AI adjusts in real time based on feedback from the compaction sensor. If an area isn’t reaching the target after the expected passes, the system changes the pattern; if it’s already at target, it moves on. The operator is still there monitoring, making decisions, managing site safety, but the pattern responds to what the sensor is seeing instead of relying on the operator to make every adjustment.

The key distinction is smart rollers, not autonomous rollers. The goal isn’t to remove the operator; it’s to give the machine enough intelligence to optimize its own compaction effort based on real data, so the operator can focus on what truly requires human judgment. That’s a realistic and meaningful step forward, and the sensor technology to support it already exists.