If you look at the universe of the construction and equipment rental industries, it’s expanding. This growth is anticipated to continue. How, how much, and where are all great questions. Industry insiders have stepped up to develop resources to help inform decision-making processes.
According to data collected by Merlo America and BiltData.ai, U.S. construction spending is expected to climb up to $1.9 trillion by 2030. Their report projects a 4 percent compound annual growth rate in spending from 2025 ($1.553 trillion) into the following five years. Nearly two-thirds of that (64 percent) spending is anticipated to come from only 35 metro areas. Further still, the top 10 metro areas are expected to account for over a third of the spending. For Cole Renken, general manager and president for Merlo America, this strategy is about putting data into the hands of the people building the future, this includes equipment rental, their dealer network, ground works contractors, as well as any construction going vertical.
While the top 35 metro areas are projected to account for 64 percent of the trillions in spending in 2030, the top 10 account for over a third of that. The projected top five:
- New York-Newark-Jersey City region ($162 billion in spending alone)
- Los Angeles
- Chicago
- Dallas-Fort Worth
- Houston
For the universe of construction, the report projects the following spending for residential, commercial, industrial, and infrastructure segments.
- Residential: $756 billion
- Commercial: $567 billion
- Industrial: $377 billion
- Infrastructure: $189 billion
Renken sees the data as a roadmap — empowering contractors, developers, and/or dealers alike to make smarter decisions, and unlocking new levels of precision and potential. The context of the report comes down to proportionality, specifically the 80:20 rule (also known as the Pareto principle where the majority of an outcome can be attributed to the minority of causes).
For example, consider employment in the construction industry where roughly 80 percent of all employment within construction work in a business of less than 10 employees, yet only makes up of about 10 to 15 percent of the workforce. “If you flip that around, you see that 10 to 20 percent of the companies employ 70 to 80 percent of all the workforce,” explains Nick Mavrick, CEO of BiltData.ai. “We said that construction is growing to 1.9 billion…I’ve never had a trillion dollars, so it’s hard to relate to — so we broke it down.”
Mavrick adds that the real advantage comes from how that data is applied at a practical level. “Specificity builds trust,” he explains, noting that breaking large datasets down into actionable insights allows businesses to move beyond broad assumptions and focus on what actually drives performance.
That level of clarity helps eliminate guesswork, particularly in an industry where, as Mavrick puts it, “there’s a ton of capital caught up between the OEM, distribution and the customer — and it’s caught up in confusion.” By identifying the customers and segments that matter most, contractors and rental companies can make more targeted decisions and build stronger, more effective partnerships.
It’s this proportionality that will help using data from reports like these to better inform investment decisions.
Whether equipment rental or a dealer, everyone wants to stay in the path of growth. One way to look at it starts with asking “why are/aren’t you doing something here,” such as the growth in an adjacent territory. Another is to apply market data to improve service: take it from the top down, look at commercial, residential, industrial, infrastructure then break it down to a commonsense level. Mavrick adds that this kind of insight also helps businesses cut through broader market noise. “It gives context to what they may read in the news and understand where opportunity might be,” he says.
“Where you get real alignment, real teamwork, and better results for the person or contractor is when you're part of their supply chain,” says Renken. “You have to understand their needs, and it's easier than it sounds when you go bottom up than top down.”
For example: data center construction. Data centers have emerged as a powerful driver of construction and industrial activity. According to the report, the top 12 markets are expected to account for nearly 73 percent of all U.S. data center capacity by 2030. It’s expected that these tech-heavy hubs will be ripe for investment in equipment and skilled services.
“I believe this time is different,” says Mavrick, pointing to the scale of capital being invested across the sector, suggesting the trend will be sustained. “The amount of capital that major companies are putting into this is significant,” he adds, noting that this investment is driving both data center construction and the infrastructure around it.
Most of these are multi-year projects but it’s still undetermined on how long the trend will remain. Regardless, Renken believes what will be long term is tied to the power generation side, echoing Mavrick’s view of sustained investment across the sector.
Market data like this helps drive the discussion about locating the opportunity in the market through investigating questions such as what’s driving the growth; where is it soft; what has happened historically; where to invest; and what machines will be needed to target an opportunity.
Access to a market-specific white paper or the interactive forecast tool can be requested through Merlo America. The tool enables dynamic visualizations of construction spending, agricultural employment and data centers throughout the U.S.
Merlo America’s Resource Hub will periodically release new insights, forecasts and data research about the construction, agriculture and data center industries. The report can be downloaded online.
